Here’s a riddle. “I’m a two-word phrase that we heard almost every day for two years, but it has dropped from almost all economic talk in 2023?”
Answer: Supply chain.
As you can see from the accompanying chart, the global supply chain pressure index hit an all-time low in May 2023. The index measures the state of global supply chains using data from the transportation and manufacturing sectors. The index will spike when there are potential disruptions and drop when nothing appears on the horizon.
This chart shows how industry leaders came together to resolve an issue that, to me, seemed endless during the heyday of COVID-19. It also shows how dangerous it can be to let a single economic data point drive portfolio decisions.
So if you hear about any supply chain disruptions due to the temporary closing of a shipping port, remember it takes a lot more than that to cause a significant worldwide issue. And who knows? Maybe next year, we will no longer hear “soft landing” or “banking stresses.” But you can be confident that Wall Street will replace them with other phrases!